Sorry to disappoint fans of the book/film, but this post is about politics. The politics of the "tomorrow" when either a Labor government gets to try it's luck in the lower house or Abbott crashes through with the Coalition. It's gone from being a banal election to the most engaging period in recent political history.
There's been plenty of analysis about what went wrong for Labor and right for Abbott and The Greens but very little on what the politics of "tomorrow" might look like.
As the two parties courted the independents, clearly the independents have been one step ahead of the media and both the major parties. With the exception of Bandt who is pretty much obliged by his electorate to support Labor the other 3 and Wilkie have a lot to lose by becoming part of a Labor OR Coalition government. They clearly know this, outright rejecting offers of ministries and the job of speaker. They face a much bigger risk of being voted out next election if their electorates sniff a sell out. By fiercely and publicly maintaining their independence and not always voting for the government on legislation they keep their electoral base.
This is where the politics become very interesting. Julia Gillard ironically is most suited to a consultative style government, and because there won't be any more rapid fire policy surprises coming out of a Labor government, to coin John Howards famous phrase, "the times will suit her", as policy, debate and consensus style politics is clearly her strength.
In a consensus style government all Tony Abbott can do is keep banging away about waste and mismanagement which will get pretty boring fast even to those that like him. The risk to Julia Gillard then is a straight leadership issue. How to manage the left who want a price on carbon with Tony Windsor and Bob Katter who clearly won't go there unless their electorates suddenly get something slipped into their water supply.
With all the competing interests the main wedge Tony can drive is inaction and instability, since it will be difficult to negotiate those competing interests and get stuff done and be seen getting stuff done. Labor however will surely have learnt from their first term and won't make the same mistakes the 2nd time around. Expect lots of hands-on Julia, local members, and independents rolling out cables etc etc. Economy building is much better at building goodwill than rapid fire policy announcements 1 year out from an election.
So what happens then if Tony gets the blue team across the line. This is probably only slightly less than a 50/50 proposition despite his early slips. This is where it could get really interesting. There is one narrative that says that Tony "I love the bush" Abbott is John Howard mid-strength (Kevin was supposed to be the lite). In this narrative he is despised by the left for his clear lack of self-awareness and policy depth but will be loved by middle Australia for his almost moronic slow speaking simplicity, and obvious leadership skills.
With the independents clearly determined to retain their independence however there are some considerable hurdles for Abbott. Think cats in a bag and that's probably a mild prescription for how the National Party, Liberals, and Independents will get along. If nothing else it will keep Annabel Crabb busy for the next 3 years, but the practical reality is that all of the Nats will be out to man up in a fight to show how they're standing up for the bush. They want those electorates back in the Nationals tent pretty badly. "Stability of government". You've got to be kidding.
Trumping the independents on message won't be easy. Abbott was keen to bluff his way past the 3 on costings, but Katter proved if you're competing at communicating a message to an electorate, he's going to outflank you with his methodic madness. This used to be Barnaby's territory until he tried to pretend he had actual substance. Bob doesn't bother with that pretence, he just loads up both barrels and fires, which is why he has appeal to the disenfranchised across the political spectrum. You may not agree with him or even understand what he's actually saying but you cheer for him all the same. His argument on the costings which was both nuanced but brutally efficient, proving he is no lightweight loon like Wilson Tuckey. Whether he remains engaged though remains to be seen.
A chest beating National party is going to be difficult for Abbott, and the key for Labor is Abbott's "stop the waste" and "pay off labor's debt" mantra. Stand by for an NBN mark 2 which somehow delivers the same result as Labor's but miraculously becomes better managed under Abbott. Stand by for a Howard style increased level of government to fulfil the demands of his critical rural partners. Abbott's rural constituents want Labor services, and public utilities, not rampaging economic rationalism driven by his core liberal base. This is no easy balancing act, and not in his current policies.
Without a mining tax, an asset sell off, or some other increased taxation, a 2012-13 budget surplus will be a better trick than anything David Copperfield could come up with. Abbott might have had a fighting chance with his small target government policy agenda, but he'll be gambling that like Howard, people will overlook his spending sins once they get to know him. Labor will simply have to re-run the Kevin campaign against the debt, and hope a few of Abbott's policies turn into pink batts or collins class submarines. Of course I think they'll hope he'll revert to his earlier arrogance which has about as much appeal to middle Australia as either John Howard, or Paul Keating in their later incarnations. I suspect however that he'll make it through at least a term without reverting to type, so direct personality attacks will not be successful.
It will be a fascinating 3 years with real scrutiny on policy. I can't wait.
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